Within the EPRDF, the Tigrean grouping TPLF was the most powerful. Unabated violence against civilians and fighting continues in Tigray, a state in northern Ethiopia, amid political transitions and evolving rhetoric around the government's military strategy.. This aid benefits around 86,000 people. A third and final historical factor influencing the evolution of Ethiopias political settlement is the volatile and insecure nature of the region in which the country is situated. The EPRDF is a good contemporary example of this dynamic (discussed below). Tronvoll (2009). Given the TPLFs historical role in shaping the EPRDF, and the number of respondents who commented on the continued influence of the TPLF within the EPRDF, the section that follows focuses primarily on the TPLF.[42], The first contemporary factor influencing Ethiopias political settlement is the partial and ongoing transition of the TPLF from liberation movement to political party. 2. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) committed US$3 billion in investment and assistance and is financing large-scale infrastructure and development initiatives. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visited Addis in December 2019, the first place she officially visited outside Europe. this new politics has had a tense relationship with individual, civic democratic rights. 0000005351 00000 n Michel Euler/Pool via REUTERS. Goods exports totaled $1.3 billion; goods imports totaled $445 million. Though the eight members were later released, Abdi Regassas whereabouts remained unknown for several months. Zelalem Teshome Baye agues that the country's political leaders need to critically re-examine the existing ethnic-based modes of the structure of political representation if further political crises are to be avoided. The government is multicameralism with a house of representative and a council. the Ethiopian government had to call on the ceasefire to save innocents who were used by the criminal members as human shields. Since January, government security forces, including Ethiopian National Defense and Oromia regional police forces, carried out abusive counterinsurgency operations in western and southern Oromia region. At the same time, the party also uses the ability to withhold such opportunities as a tool of control, in part to limit and discourage its citizens from political engagement. Ethiopia is currently our 82nd largest goods trading partner with $1.8 billion in total (two-way) goods trade during 2018. Although feedback obtained through interviews suggests that the government has shown commitment to follow-up meetings and policy amendments in some areas, the programme is still new and will need to be monitored. 0000006465 00000 n Styrelsen fr internationellt utvecklingssamarbete. Ethnic conflict, political crisis and the future of Ethiopia. 0000008092 00000 n The point here is not to discuss whether this approach to economic governance is efficient or sustainable, but to underline the fact that Ethiopias leading groups use economic resources and rents to create output legitimacy. trailer << /Size 539 /Info 424 0 R /Root 426 0 R /Prev 647989 /ID[] >> startxref 0 %%EOF 426 0 obj << /Pages 413 0 R /Outlines 431 0 R /Type /Catalog /PageMode /UseOutlines /OpenAction 427 0 R /Threads 428 0 R /PageLabels 410 0 R /StructTreeRoot null /Metadata 412 0 R /PieceInfo << /MarkedPDF << /LastModified (D:20040401175627)>> >> /LastModified (D:20040401175627) /FICL:Enfocus 421 0 R /MarkInfo << /Marked true /LetterspaceFlags 0 >> >> endobj 427 0 obj << /D [ 430 0 R /XYZ -32768 -32768 1 ] /S /GoTo >> endobj 428 0 obj [ 429 0 R ] endobj 429 0 obj << /F 497 0 R /I << /Title (WRITENET)>> >> endobj 537 0 obj << /S 2061 /O 2360 /L 2376 /Filter /FlateDecode /Length 538 0 R >> stream For instance: Markakis (2011). EPRDF came to power by force of 0000017122 00000 n [1] The most recent general election took place in 2021. The TPLF was deregistered by the Electoral Authority in January 2021 and branded a terrorist by the Federal Parliament in May of the same year (see Political system ). It is over three million years old. The comments were made on Nov. 17 . U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is warning that the worsening situation in Ethiopia puts at risk the "peace and stability" of the Horn of Africa.. Tigray People's Liberation Front. In January, parliament approved a law on hate speech and disinformation, taking effect on March 23. 0000016355 00000 n Tigrai Online YouTube channel is associated to our website Tigrai Online www.tigraionline.com where we provide Ethiopian daily news, information on investmen. 0000024148 00000 n See: Markakis (2011). Yet, authorities in Benishangul-Gumuz and Amhara region began returning thousands of internally displaced people within Metekel in April. In ancient times it remained centred on Aksum, an imperial capital located in the northern part of the modern state, about 100 miles (160 km) from the Red Sea coast.The present territory was consolidated during the 19th and 20th centuries as European powers encroached . See: Jones, W., R. de Oliveira and H. Verhoeven. For example, the large TPLF/EPRDF recruitment drive in the wake of the 2005 elections was primarily an effort to shore up the partys support base. Ethiopia's government has severely restricted access to journalists, and a state-enforced communications blackout concealed events in the region, making it challenging to gauge the extent of the. 0000004657 00000 n In the security sector, a 2017 public report revealed that out of 49 ranking military generals in the Ethiopian National Defense Forces, 34 (around 70 percent) were TPLF appointed ethnic Tigrayans. Share this via Printer, As More Climate Chaos Looms, Slashing Fossil Fuels Is Key. 0000014513 00000 n Ethiopia - The New York Times Ethiopia Ethiopian Government and Tigray Rebels Set to Begin Peace Talks Delegations from both sides have traveled to South Africa for the first formal. 0000019806 00000 n On June 3, after coming under attack by unidentified groups, regional security forces stormed into Nekemte Specialized Hospital, threatened staff into treating two wounded regional police officers and temporarily interrupted health services. Despite these pauses, HEKS/EPER and its partners have been able to keep on delivering activities and people have continued to receive support. It is nevertheless not surprising that this situation has continued to generate criticism as well as resistance from those who feel politically and economically excluded. 0000008867 00000 n Reality is more complex than a model of conveniently layered influence, as some of these layers overlap and some connections will be more prominent than others, but it does suggest that a number of historical patterns of co-optation continue to operate. This is OCHA Ethiopia bi-weekly digital Situation Report covering the humanitarian situation, needs, response and gaps country-wide. It will be argued that three aspects of the nature and style of EPRDF governance have shaped the evolution of Ethiopias political settlement over this period in particular. 0000020961 00000 n It is tempting to start an analysis of how power is organized and exercised in Ethiopia by going back to 1991, when the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF) overthrew the military junta (Derg) under Mengistu Haile Mariam and brought 17 years of rebellion-cum-liberation struggle to an end. On February 29, police arrested Abdi Regassa and eight other members of Oromo Liberation Front (OLF). We cannot fully grasp the current situation without understanding two main contexts that have to be put together in order to have a better understanding: 1. Share this via Telegram Refugees lack access to sanitation and safe drinking water. 0000012698 00000 n On June 30, following Hachalus killing, authorities imposed a nationwide three-week internet shutdown. This makes it difficult to engage in more open and introspective reflection on the source of these groups domestic grievances, their objectives and the nature of their underlying conflict with the state. Figure 1 illustrates this rise and highlights its structural form. This engagement continues a longer Ethiopian track record of intermittently fielding a sizeable military presence in Somalia on the basis of national security interests, both with and without UN or AU mandate. Although negotiations under AU auspices resolved some concerns of the parties, disagreements related to drought mitigation and dispute resolution remained unsolved. On November 1, after federal forces left the area, unidentified armed groups attacked mainly ethnic Amhara residents in Guliso village in western Oromia, resulting in dozens killed and property damage. While this is by no means dissimilar from the behaviour of Western colonizing powers during the same period, the latters use of violence occurred largely in overseas territories away from their domestic populations. It was on the heels of twenty-eight years of the Tigraian ethnic dominated repressive rule with mixed . The aim of this article is designed to provide an overview of the historical and contemporary relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea as well as to examine the recent geopolitical situation and the perception of local people in Ethiopia. 0000013839 00000 n Such missions generally act as a temporary conflict stabilizer. 1. Longstanding grievances and increasing polarization over historical and complex questions about land, politics, and identity, led to deadly violence among ethnic communities in 2020. On this point see: Pausewang, S., Ethiopia: Crisis of State, Good Governance and the Reform of the Security Sector, in: Debiel, T. with A. Klein (2002). He co-authored a book on the Ethiopian Revolution. In this paper, we attempt to address the current situation in Ethiopia, with a focus on the prevailing contradictions on state structure and associated crises. The origins of this volatility are too complex to discuss here in detail, but they include decades of cross-border violent activity, competing cross-border claims on resources, territory, loyalty and legitimacy, the quest for greater autonomy by some ethnic groups, the seasonal migration of the regions sizeable nomadic populations, and the illicit movement of people and goods across porous borders.[31] Given its size, location and interests, Ethiopia is at the heart of a regional conflict complex.[32] It could be argued that many of the drivers of this complex have been situated outside of the country since the start of EPRDF rule in 1991. HV]lU>,BC6f#TcPv3$ 1vwvHg[3x0h"`b$J`*1F(xxwVd{w @`Y$=IXqA%:-[=%RX{/'RR*:Nf05gfym7v.Y~}#skwV.L\dW;?kZ:4Q=`myd/'nosj`Jt{Cy!uU0}. We have seen them conniving, in a grand chess-player style, to sacrifice the people as pawns with the aim of crowning themselves. The framework is derived from: De Zeeuw, J. current situation in Ethiopia by looking at the current population and economic situation; the political situation; environment, natural disasters, and food security; culture, and; the status of women. 0000003006 00000 n Simplice Asongu (PhD) eshetu shifaw. Significant aspects of this approach were reproduced in varying forms by the military junta between 1974 and 1991 and some aspects by the EPRDF between 1991 and 2015, in particular the continuation of top-down decision-making and implementation, especially in the realms of high politics and security, with little scope for dissent or adaptation to local circumstances.[21] Even today, decision-making takes a committee-style form, usually involving small groups of well-connected individuals who, by and large, are not representative of the population at large.[22] That said, it should be noted that this centralized approach to governance seems to have served Ethiopias ruling elites well in terms of resisting colonization, facilitating significant surplus extraction from vast areas with diverse populations and enabling a focused mobilization of resources for economic growth today.[23], A second historical factor that infuences the evolution of Ethiopias political settlement is a legacy of exclusionary rule with ethnic undertones. January 11, 2021 (Ezega.com) -- For years, we have witnessed crowd leaders striving to segregate the people of Ethiopia, which ultimately threatened our sovereignty. Fighting since January reportedly resulted in 35,5000 displacedhalf of the conflict-induced displacements recorded in the country between January and June 2020. Corruption is reported to be growing in volume and salience as it extends beyond small-scale individual self-enrichment to acquire larger proportions. Connectivity was restored on March 31. More specifically, Ethiopias ruling elites have largely come from two ethnic groups Amharan and Tigrayan which represent respectively a sizeable and a small fraction of the total population (see Box 1). The regulations limited gatherings to four people, suspended suspects right to appear before a judge within 48 hours, and broadly restricted media reporting on Covid-19 news if reporting could cause terror and undue distress among the public.. A Forum dedicated to discussing more sensitive issues such as security, justice and human rights has yet to be formed.[53], A second contemporary factor influencing Ethiopias current political settlement can be captured succinctly: the continuous dominance of the Ethiopian state by the TPLF/EPRDF since 1991. This paper is mainly based on secondary data analysis of the available secondary information and news reports, online articles, academic literature, interviews . On April 8, Ethiopia declared a five-month state of emergency, giving authorities sweeping powers to respond to Covid-19. 0000011104 00000 n A final contemporary factor that influences Ethiopias political settlement is the fusion of political power and economic interests in a governance model in which both state and economy are led by the party for the people through the state. 6%). HEKS champions the cause of a more humane and just world and a life in dignity. However, it can also be argued that the combination of Ethiopias political culture of militarism, history of violence and its control-oriented approach to power tends to prioritize the use of force in response to regional insecurity over softer conflict resolution methods, such as negotiation and dialogue.[34] Here, one could point to Ethiopias bilateral interventions in Somalia and its training of Somali militia along its border, which is separate from its engagement with the Somali National Army through AMISOM.[35]. Then UN special rapporteur on freedom of expression, David Kaye, visited Ethiopia in December 2019, the first official mission by any mandate holder to the country since 2006. The objective of the study is to differentiate the current political situation of Ethiopia whether it is political transformation or change. E-mail:bettina.filacanavo@heks.ch, HEKS 0000009122 00000 n The Ethiopia-Tigray peace agreement is a peace treaty signed between the government of Ethiopia and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) on 2 November 2022, [1] where both parties agreed to a "permanent cessation of hostilities" to end the Tigray War. Africa's second most populous country is in the midst of an increasingly rocky political transition that began in 2018, with the ascent of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. See: International Crisis Group. It is worth noting, for example, the countrys role in the Nile Basin Initiative dialogue and in the Sudanese national dialogue, and its mediation efforts in the South Sudan power struggle. 0000018797 00000 n The overthrow of the junta has been described as an intellectually-led and ideology-driven revolution, and in this light the TPLF can be classified as an integrated insurgent organization, characterized by strong central leadership, unity/cohesion and high levels of local support/compliance among the Tigrayan people.[43] These characteristics made the TPLF a formidable adversary for the military junta which, lacking the sophisticated means necessary for a comprehensive counter-insurgency campaign,[44] actually boosted the TPLFs initial strengths by resorting to indiscriminate counter-population warfare.[45] The TPLFs organizational characteristics also made it a movement/party with strong internal discipline and the ability to retain popular support.[46] Existing research offers a four-point general framework for understanding the transition of the TPLF from liberation movement to political party post-1991:[47], The extent to which a political party structure has been developed: After 1991 the TPLF/EPDRF expanded its already formidable (though all-Tigray) party organization to achieve national scale. 0000007026 00000 n Dehz and Gebrewold (2010). Such as electoral violence in 2005 or the recent violence associated with the governments decision to expand the city limits of Addis Ababa into the state of Oromia. HEKS/EPER Ethiopia has implemented several projects on the ground to respond quickly and effectively to this humanitarian crisis in four areas, namely the Oromia, Amhara, SNNPR and Somali regions. Ethiopia is virtually unique in Africa in possessing a tradition of the state which long predates the colonial era. 0000008241 00000 n 0000008683 00000 n Total public debt had ballooned from $13.7 billion in 2011 to $54.7 billion in 2020, which represents a four-fold increase. 0000010044 00000 n 0000014266 00000 n Currently, Ethiopia is facing multidimensional and intersectional crises of geo-political, security, and socio-economic characteristics. The fighting between federal government forces and Tigray regional forces sparked concerns by humanitarian actors of the risk to vulnerable groups in Tigray regional state, including 100,000 IDPs and 96,000 refugees. In short, while there is an ethnic dimension to rule in Ethiopia, it is partial and somewhat diluted through measures that give a larger number of groups a stake in governance. The existing justice sector cluster involves government departments only and has the objective of promoting a more joined-up government discussion on justice-related issues. Just about 15.1% of Ethiopia's total land area remains arable (land good for farming). Managing Ethiopia's current political crisis requires going beyond democratic reform and instead thinking about the political economy and institutions that shape elite competition along. 0000020416 00000 n Strategic choice theory, prospect theory, political party theory, and input-output theory are accustomed among political scientists. 10 January 2018. 0000055198 00000 n This has generally resulted in the regression of civil liberties and prioritized security concerns over quality-of-governance concerns.[36] The second effect is that that countries in the region, Ethiopia included, have been enabled to brand as terrorists groups that have domestic grievances but do use violent methods. On the importance of land: Vaughan, S. and K. Tronvoll. The government is structured as a federal parliamentary republic with both a President and Prime Minister. Publishing Details | Privacy Statement. In this study, it is established that the unrestrained political circumstance of the current regime has created dissension and violence among the public, and thus led to escalating political, economic and security crises in Ethiopia. By. 0000010501 00000 n The incumbent, the opposition, legal scholars and political scientists took center stage. Other ways to share Attacks by armed groups escalated in August and September, targeting security forces, officials, and residents, including ethnic Amharas, resulting in scores killed, kidnappings, property destruction, and renewed displacement. Indeed, a more appropriate historical marker is the reign of Menelik II (18891913) as it was under his rule that the Ethiopian empire was consolidated administratively and became a lasting political fixture of modern East Africa after the defeat of Italian colonial forces at the battle of Adowa (1896). This, however, triggered a protracted insurgency by the UICs youth wing, Al-Shabaab, that thrived on projecting Ethiopia as foreign occupier to justify counter-violence and radicalization. Reports of extrajudicial killings, mass arrests and detentions, and violence against ethnic Oromo civilians, including medical professionals, accused of supporting or being sympathetic to the armed rebel group the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), were widespread. These contemporary factors that influence Ethiopias political settlement point to the following broad parameters for the organization of security: The partial transition from liberation movement to political party indicate that security principles, policies and initiatives still lack transparency and are set by a small group of insiders whose background is one of military struggle and strong party loyalties. 0000011431 00000 n Box, 8042 Zurich044 360 88 00info@heks.ch. These issues suggest that political incentives for mobilizing ethnicity as a resource in struggles for power already exist.[30]. 0000014951 00000 n This greatly facilitates party outreach, campaigning and understanding of local needs. 0000008553 00000 n 0000006679 00000 n 0000017777 00000 n An examination of Ethiopias history since 1889 suggests a number of historical (between 1889 and 1991) and contemporary (between 1991 and 2015) factors that have influenced the evolution of the countrys political settlement. This both requires and perpetuates securitized approaches to (political) conflict. Share this via Twitter 0000017163 00000 n The latter faction prevailed. The national emblem on the flag shall reflect the hope of Ethiopia people to live together in equality and unity. Ethiopia is one of the world's oldest countries, its territorial extent having varied over the millennia of its existence. Besides, violence in Ethiopia has steadily increased in recent months. 0000073000 00000 n The focus, this time, is on the current Ethiopian crisis, and as the title amply demonstrates we shall decidedly analyze . Your donation will trigger big changes from small beginnings. 0000019361 00000 n The groups that were forcibly incorporated into the Ethiopian empire are now citizens of todays Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia.[18] The collective memory of violence[19] that certain groups suffered in this process has remained fresh in a number of cases, owing to the continued perception or experience of central political control and targeted use of coercion.[20], Indirect and direct control and centralization have continued as modes of governance since Imperial Ethiopia ceased to exist in 1974. (ed.). If this issue is not rectified quickly, the peace in the country may be jeopardised. 0000026826 00000 n Internationally. Historically, the Amhara-dominated core of the empire gradually annexed the highland periphery of the Ethiopian plateau and then its surrounding lowlands, in a classic pattern of empire-building that imposed different modes of governance on annexed territorities.[15] The generally fertile and productive areas of the Ethiopian plateau were largely integrated into the empire and administered through a centralized bureaucracy that sought to maintain control and extract rents via a feudal system of land management, military mobilization and political loyalty. Theoretical framework Political scientists used different theories to study political reforms. 0000021484 00000 n A political opposition exists, but remains powerless. The situation in Ethiopia is still highly volatile and the outlook remains far from positive. Abiy's new political vehicle, the Ethiopian Prosperity Party, is the national frontrunner, constructed from the former Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front ruling coalition, which was once led by the TPLF. 0000015016 00000 n Share this via Facebook The forward-looking policies that Prime Minister Meles Zenawi and his inner circles crafted in areas like agriculture, education and foreign and security affairs stand out, in a positive way. This has by and large created a monopoly of power that has excluded political competition and makes the government difficult to distinguish from the party, with the consequence that the state becomes partly an instrument of the party. The first place she officially visited outside Europe ethiopian current political situation pdf displacements recorded in country. The developing stage, recent protests respond to Covid-19 lives on both sides now scheduled June! 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