A. Hicke, R. G. Kelsey, J. F. Negron, and S. J. Seybold, 2010: Climate change and bark beetles of the Western United States and Canada: Direct and indirect effects. Southwest Region Climate will sometimes glitch and take you a long time to try different solutions. In the late Ordovician (about 460 to 430 million years ago), the Earth fell into another brief but intense ice age. During winter months . Regional annual average temperatures are projected to rise by 2.5F to 5.5F by 2041-2070 and by 5.5F to 9.5F by 2070-2099 with continued growth in global emissions (A2 emissions scenario), with the greatest increases in the summer and fall (Figure 20.1). AC-07-SS-1. 2: Our Changing Climate, Key Message 5).5 There is mounting evidence that the combination of human-caused temperature increases and recent drought has influenced widespread tree mortality,11,12 increased fire occurrence and area burned,13 and forest insect outbreaks (Ch. Each key message was defended before the entire author team prior to the key message being selected for inclusion. To view our full 12 month calendar, sign up for a membership today for as low as $8.99 a year! Annual temperatures and precipitation tend to be very different from one year to the next, and the Southwest has also seen major climate shifts that have lasted for centuries; for example the Southwest dried out significantly over the entire period between AD 1000 and 1450 in a series of epic droughts known as the medieval megadroughts. In the middle Cretaceous, oceans covered most of the Southwest, with the exception of parts of Arizona and New Mexico. Precipitation has become more variable from year to year, and heavy downpours across the U.S. have increased in the last 20 years. 268 pp., U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, D.C. URL Kppen climate map of the 48 contiguous states of the continental United States. | Detail , Hurteau, M. D., G. W. Koch, and B. The fire regimes in pinyon-juniper woodlands are not as well studied as the fire regimes in higher elevation plant communities. URL | Detail , Garfin, G., A. Jardine, R. Merideth, M. Black, and J. Overpeck, 2012: Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: a Technical Report Prepared for the U.S. National Climate Assessment. Precipitation forms. During winter months, daytime temperatures may average 70 degrees F, with night temperatures often falling to freezing of slightly below in the lower desert valleys." However, there are no studies on urban power disruption induced by climate change. Climate change in the Southwest The global rise in temperatures will affect different locations on earth in unique ways. Explore how climate change is affecting the Southwest. Much of the Southwest became an archipelago of warm shallow seaways and uplifted islands, with terrestrial swampy forests and shallow sea floors populated by bivalves, brachiopods, arthropods, corals, and fish. Climatic Change, 76, 361-387, doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9079-5. National Research Council, Committee on Science and Technology for Countering Terrorism. Science, 324, 481-484, doi:10.1126/science.1163886. The average annual temperature in most of the Southwest is predicted to rise 2.2 to 5.5C (4 to 10F) by 2100. These economic pressures increase vulnerabilities to climate-related health and safety risks, such as air pollution, inadequate erosion and flood control, and insufficient safe drinking water.36. The western edge of the Southern Plains is also dry, but the plains become wetter towards the east. These deposits, including the Navajo Sandstone, are responsible for spectacular scenery in the national parks and recreation areas of northernmost Arizona and southern Utah. | Detail , ,, 2009: United States Summary and State Data. Earth 150 million years ago, near the end of the Jurassic Period. Then they take a closer look at the phases of the PNA . Warmer temperatures also make it easier for insect pests to overwinter and produce more generations. The strength of the monsoon varies from year to year, but researchers are currently unsure why (Adams and Comrie 1997). | View Google Privacy Policy. But every decade since the 1970s, the . Social Science & Medicine, 63, 2847-2863, doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2006.07.030. Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: A Report Prepared for the National Climate Assessment, G. Garfin, Jardine, A., Merideth, R., Black, M., and LeRoy, S., Eds., Island Press, 340384. They listen to weather reports and have their own weathermen on staff. Figure 1. 2005). California Water Plan Update 2009. Climate Change in the Southwest - Conclusions and Literature Cited, Download the official NPS app before your next visit, Climate Change in the Southwest - Past Climate and Global Climate Change, Climate Change in the Southwest - Conclusions and Literature Cited. Anywhere from the 50s to below freezing. odds for above-normal seasonal mean temperatures for western Alaska, much of. B. Pittock, A. Rahman, J. Geophysical Research Letters, 37, L04702, doi:10.1029/2009GL041695. Indeed, many Southwest ecosystems depend on periodic wildfire to maintain healthy tree densities, enable seeds to germinate, and reduce pests.101,102 Excessive wildfire destroys homes, exposes slopes to erosion and landslides, threatens public health, and causes economic damage.97,98,99,100 The $1.2 billion in damages from the 2003 Grand Prix fire in southern California illustrates the high cost of wildfires.100. Reconstruction created usingPaleomap(by C. Scotese) forGPlates. Increased heat and changes to rain and snowpack will send ripple effects throughout the regions critical agriculture sector, affecting the lives and economies of 56 million people a population that is expected to increase 68% by 2050, to 94 million.5 Severe and sustained drought will stress water sources, already over-utilized in many areas, forcing increasing competition among farmers, energy producers, urban dwellers, and plant and animal life for the regions most precious resource. As the Triassic period began, the Southwest moved north from the equator. Genetic improvement potential. A key uncertainty is the timing of extreme events during the phenological stage of the plant or the growth cycle of the animal. California produces about 95% of U.S. apricots, almonds, artichokes, figs, kiwis, raisins, olives, cling peaches, dried plums, persimmons, pistachios, olives, and walnuts, in addition to other high-value crops.80 Drought and extreme weather affect the market value of fruits and vegetables more than other crops because they have high water content and because sales depend on good visual appearance.73 The combination of a longer frost-free season, less frequent cold air outbreaks, and more frequent heat waves accelerates crop ripening and maturity, reduces yields of corn, tree fruit, and wine grapes, stresses livestock, and increases agricultural water consumption.81,74,82,83 This combination of climate changes is projected to continue and intensify, possibly requiring a northward shift in crop production, displacing existing growers and affecting farming communities.72,75. While the aquatic communities are already disturbance prone and very resilient, larger-scale changes in the geomorphology of the stream channels, like arroyo-cutting, would have profound consequences for ecosystem structure and functioning. This map shows the average temperature from 2000-2013 relative to the long-term average from 1895-2013. A. Hungate, 2008: Carbon protection and fire risk reduction: Toward a full accounting of forest carbon offsets. Climate-related challenges also increase risks to critical port cities, which handle half of the nations incoming shipping containers. Funnel clouds (developing tornadoes) over El Paso County, Colorado, March 29, 2019. Bring a windbreaker or other wind-resistant outerwear in summer and cold-weather layers for winter. The chapter author team engaged in multiple technical discussions through more than 15 biweekly teleconferences that permitted a careful review of the foundational TIR41 and of approximately 125 additional technical inputs provided by the public, as well as the other published literature and professional judgment. URL A. Zehnder, T. Loridan, and C. S. B. Grimmond, 2010: Contribution of land use changes to near-surface air temperatures during recent summer extreme heat events in the Phoenix metropolitan area. | Detail , Luedeling, E., E. H. Girvetz, M. A. Semenov, and P. H. Brown, 2011: Climate change affects winter chill for temperate fruit and nut trees. Final Report to the California Air Resources Board. What is winter like in the Southwest? Columbian mammoth (Mammuthus columbi) tracks, Pleistocene, White Sands National Park, New Mexico. Shallow seaways spread over many of the continents, including South America, Africa, Eurasia, and North America. Average Temperatures in the Southwestern United States, 2000-2020 Versus Long-Term Average. | Detail , Neiman, P. J., F. M. Ralph, G. A. Wick, J. D. Lundquist, and M. D. Dettinger, 2008: Meteorological characteristics and overland precipitation impacts of atmospheric rivers affecting the west coast of North America based on eight years of SSM/I satellite observations. However, 20th century fire suppression has resulted in increased tree density; therefore, the fires that occur are high severity, stand-replacing fires (Schoennagel et al. Although much of the Southwest falls within the category of an arid zone, using a single label to describe the Southwest's climate would belie its diversity. 2006, Mote at el. By comparison, the average high and low temperatures for the entire United States are 17C (63F) and 5C (41F), respectively. One controversial hypothesis proposes that an area of western Coloradoone of the islands that dotted the early Carboniferous seawas, in fact, glaciated. 16th - 19th Stormy weather exits, then drier, colder conditions. Journal of Geophysical Research, 113, F01008, doi:10.1029/2006JF000705. Van Dorn, D. J. Ganz, and K. Hayhoe, 2012: Climate change and disruptions to global fire activity. 2003). | Detail , Bloetscher, F., D. E. Meeroff, B. N. Heimlich, A. R. Brown, D. Bayler, and M. Loucraft, 2010: Improving resilience against the effects of climate change. Colorado Water Institute, Colorado State University, 27 pp. As of 2010, bark beetles in Arizona and New Mexico have affected more than twice the forest area burned by wildfires in those states. Forecasting the snowfall amount probability, snow accumulation, and a snowfall forecast map. In 2007 Census of Agriculture, Vol. It also highlighted a recent research project from Utah State University that used Twitter to track and predict changing drought conditions. | Detail , Ostro, B., S. Rauch, and S. Green, 2011: Quantifying the health impacts of future changes in temperature in California. This leads to earlier snowmelt and evaporation both of which have negative implications for water supply, alpine vegetation, and forests.51,52,53,54 The prospect of more lowland soil drying out from drought and human disturbances (like agriculture and development) makes regional dust a potent future risk to snow and water supplies. Therefore, current climate models cannot accurately predict the effect of climate change on the monsoon (Lenart 2007). The daily range between maximum and minimum temperatures sometimes runs as much as 50 to 60 degrees F during the drier periods of the year. Left:Warm air rises. | Detail , Gautam, M. R., K. Chief, and W. J. Smith, Jr., 2013: Climate change in arid lands and Native American socioeconomic vulnerability: The case of the Pyramid Lake Paiute Tribe. Increased competition for scarce water was presented in the first key message and in the foundational Technical Input Report (TIR).41 U.S. temperatures, including those for the Southwest region, have increased and are expected to continue to rise (Ch. Nearly 70% of the regional crop area is located in California. In the March 2022 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido "dive into a recap of winter (so far) in the Southwest. Warm, moist air from the south occasionally but infrequently moves into Colorado during the summer. The reason may be that during the wet years, fine fuels accumulate (Swetnam and Betancourt 1998). Left photoandright photofrom NPS, courtesy David Bustos (public domain). Climate changes pose challenges for an already parched region that is expected to get hotter and, in its southern half, significantly drier. In general, it is expected that high alpine glaciers in the Colorado Rockies will disappear as the climate continues to warm. Winter chill periods are projected to fall below the duration necessary for many California trees to bear nuts and fruits, which will result in lower yields.71 Warm-season vegetable crops grown in Yolo County, one of Californias biggest producers, may not be viable under hotter climate conditions.72,84 Once temperatures increase beyond optimum growing thresholds, further increases in temperature, like those projected for the decades beyond 2050, can cause large decreases in crop yields and hurt the regions agricultural economy. Based on GCM projections, downscaled and run through the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrological model,45 there are projected reductions in spring snow accumulation and total annual runoff, leading to reduced surface water supply reliability for much of the Southwest, with greater impacts occurring during the second half of this century.25,46,47. This salt is part of the Late Carboniferous (Pennsylvanian) Paradox Formation. Spear, P. Ruggiero, and J. Vandever, A methodology for predicting future coastal hazards due to sea-level rise on the California Coast, Richardson, L. A., P. A. NOAA Tech Memo OAR CPO-1. Fire models project more wildfire and increased risks to communities across extensive areas. 52 pp., U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA. URL Summer temperatures do not show this gradient and are on average only slightly cooler than the adjacent deserts. Global Change Research Program Irrigation water transfers to urban. Precipitation in the Southern Plains averages 12 to 39 inches, mostly falling from April through September. Photograph by Julia Manzerova (Flickr;Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.0 Generic license; image resized). 9: Human Health).22,23,137 For example, an 11-minute power system disturbance in September 2011 cascaded into outages that left 1.5 million San Diego residents without power for 12 hours;135 the outage disrupted pumps and water service, causing 1.9 million gallons of sewage to spill near beaches.138 Extensive use of air conditioning to deal with high temperatures can quickly increase electricity demand and trigger cascading energy system failures, resulting in blackouts or brownouts.19,20,21,24, Heat stress, a recurrent health problem for urban residents, has been the leading weather-related cause of death in the United States since 1986, when record keeping began139 and the highest rates nationally are found in Arizona.140 The effects of heat stress are greatest during heat waves lasting several days or more, and heat waves are projected to increase in frequency, duration, and intensity,16,18,127,128,129 become more humid,16 and cause a greater number of deaths.130 Already, severe heat waves, such as the 2006 ten-day California event, have resulted in high mortality, especially among elderly populations.131 In addition, evidence indicates a greater likelihood of impacts in less affluent neighborhoods, which typically lack shade trees and other greenery and have reduced access to air conditioning.141,142,143, Exposure to excessive heat can also aggravate existing human health conditions, like for those who suffer from respiratory or heart disease.130 Increased temperatures can reduce air quality, because atmospheric chemical reactions proceed faster in warmer conditions. 2002). 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